 By Jim Terwoord
“I’m gonna knock him out in the first round” – Chuck Liddell on Rampage Jackson before UFC 71.
MMA fights are all about the match ups – striker vs. wrestler, kickboxer vs. BJJ big shot, and your favorite “good guy” vs. the “bum of the month.” After all, looking at fight cards and trying to pick winners is what the sport is all about – the proof is an avalanche of betting sites now available to empty your wallet for any top shelf MMA event. And if you’re like everyone else, you like to think of your keen MMA insight as the perfect opportunity to “run smack” on all your friends.
While this corner doesn’t claim any divine guidance when picking MMA winners and has lost more than its share of “lead pipe locks”, we have learned several ways not to pick them – and will happily enlighten you with our expensive, hard earned lessons.
#1 – What they say. How many times have you heard “I’m gonna knock him out,” “he thinks he can submit me” or “this fight will never make it to the judges?” Face it sports fans – there are only two things to remember about what comes out of fighter pie holes: first, it’s always gonna be upbeat, positive and totally in their favor and second, it’s probably what someone else told them to say.
Now fighters have gotta believe they’ll win – I mean picture the “Iceman” saying “Yeah – Wandi will probably mop the floor with my bloody body” or something similar. Not pretty is it? What the Iceman did say before the last Rampage rumble was “I’m gonna knock him out in the first round” – and we know that didn’t work out. Mr. Rampage on the other hand, looked into his crystal ball and said “I’m gonna kick Chuck’s ass” – and did. I hope you put a quid on Quinton – I didn’t.
“Made for PPV” events have also caused the slick and scripted comments of Madison Avenue flacks to flow from fighter mouths. Who can forget L’il Evil before his last fight – promoting his ghost written book? This verbal minefield can easily leave you dazed, confused and guilty of serious over thinking. Our solution to this whole mess? Just remember that talk’s cheap – and try sticking your fingers in your ears next time you watch a prefight press conference.
#2 – The weigh-in. Speaking of “made for TV” – have weigh-ins become crazy or what? What used to be an almost clandestine affair, conducted in locker rooms and gyms has moved center stage to constantly expanding venues complete with libations and ring girls. Why? Because you’ll pay to see it is why.
A recent IFL weigh-in had one fighter snapping the towel, shielding his total nudity, away from an unsuspecting ring girl holding it for his protection. The poor girl was embarrassed and tried her best not to “look.” Since all subsequent videotape has blurred out the offending body parts, we are unable to comment on his “talent” – or lack thereof. Take it from me – there’s only one thing you can learn from a weigh in – who made weight!
#3 – How they look. This one has fooled fight fans forever. The “lean and mean” description of the old days has given way to the “ripped and shredded” of today, but the guy who looks the best is sure to get plenty of attention – at least from MMA newbies.
One recent website posting we read predicted a victory for Wanderlei Silva over Chuck Liddell in their upcoming UFC 79 clash, because of his “shredded six – pack” – or something like that. It predicted that Liddell would come in with his “usual beer belly” and lay down for his beating. Now we all wish we had a “six pack” like the “Axe Murderer” too – but Liddell simply has a different body type, and like most of us mere mortals, will probably never look “ripped.” And if “six pack abs” had anything to do with it, why not just skip sparring and buy a slant board? Our advice? Next time you try and pick a match between “Mr. Smooth and Mr. Shredded” - forgetaboutit – don’t mean nothin’.
#4 – The prefight “procession.” This one is interesting. TV now takes us into the locker room and follows the fighter procession right to ringside, where we witness jock strap inspections and every dab of Vaseline. Some guys make the march with their hoods up and “game face” on, while others revel in the energy of the crowd, “high fiving” everyone in sight, stopping just short of kissing ring girls. Think Clay Guida on his way to getting choked out by Roger Huerta.
We recently witnessed a fight at Wild Bill’s in Duluth where one fighter passed out roses on his way to the ring – and lost. At an earlier event in the same venue, we watched a big heavyweight belch “gasoline” while descending thru the crowd and toss the gas can to the fans – he won. You pick – by then it’s probably too late to bet with anyone but the guy sitting next to you anyway!
#5 – The “stare down”. Is there anything more entertaining than the in-the-cage “stare down?” Watching the big dogs squint at one another can make you squirm in your seat just looking. I’m not sure what it proves, other than who has the most efficient tear ducts!
Now admittedly - there are some tough looking dudes in MMA. Standing six inches from Kimbo Slice and feeling his breath on your face might scare the hell out of you and me – but I don’t think Randy Couture would be wetting himself! Maybe it goes back to your school days when you took on that bully on the playground and it’s sure fun to watch – just don’t factor it into your betting equation.
There you have it folks. If I ever get it figured out, I’ll write a story on how to pick a winner – something I’m a lot less qualified for than the effort above. Now if someone can just explain those betting line numbers to me, I believe I’ll make a wager!
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